How Much Confidence Should You Have in Research Findings?

How much confidence should you have in the findings published in the top strategic management journals? Less than you might think, according to new research.

In this issue of Smith Business Close-Up with the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business, host Jeff Salkin sits down with Brent Goldfarb to talk about his new research, that estimates that 24 to 40 percent of the findings in five top strategic management journals are likely the result of chance.

Goldfarb is an associate professor of management and entrepreneurship. His research focuses on how the production and exchange of technology differs from more traditional economic goods, with a focus on the implications on the role of startups in the economy. Goldfarb’s latest research is part of a growing movement in the social sciences in which scholars have suggested that wishful thinking on the part of scholars, perhaps caused by the pressure to publish or perish, is trumping statistical rigor.