Three Strategic Bets on AI’s Future
This paper examines competition in the consumer AI assistant market using worldwide iOS and Android app-store data from seven major AI assistants from May 2023 through December 2025. Rather than finding a winner-take-all market, we show that major product launches tend to coincide with growth in the overall category, with little evidence of direct cannibalization across leading models. In other words, the “AI war” appears less zero-sum than commonly assumed.