Smith Faculty Opinion Article

August 24, 2007

By Dr. Peter Morici, Professor of International Business
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Peter Morici

Forecast

Forecast Previous Period: Week of August 27

August 27
Existing Home Sales - July 5.700 5.750

August 28
Consumer Confidence - Aug 105.0 112.6
FMOC Minutes

August 29
GDP Q2 - Preliminary 3.8% 3.4
GDP Deflator 2.7% 2.7
PCE Price 4.3% 4.3
Core PCE 1.4% 1.4

August 30
Initial Jobless Claims 316k 322
Help Wanted Index - July 25 26

August 31
Personal Income - July 0.3% 0.4
Per Con Expenditures 0.3% 0.1
PCE Deflator 0.1% 0.3
Core PCE Deflator 0.2% 0.1
Real Per Consumption 0.2% 0.0

Chicago PMI - August 55.5 53.4

Factory Orders - July 0.5% 0.6
Durable Goods Orders 5.5% 5.9
Nondurable Goods Orders 0.5% -0.1

Mich Cons Sentiment - Aug(r) 854.0 83.3

Week of September 3

September 4
Construction Spending - Aug 0.2 -0.3

ISM Index - August 53.0 53.8
ISM Prices 64.0 65.0

September 5
Pending Home Sales - July 101 102.4

Auto Sales (SAAR) - August 15.85m 15.28
Car Sales 7.58m 7.19 D4.98 4.73
Truck Sales 8.27m 8.09 D6.83 6.68

ADP Employment August 90 48

September 6
Productivity (r) - Q2 2.0% 1.8
Unit Labor Cost 2.1 2.1

ISM Services - August 54.5 55.8
ISM Services - Prices 60.0 61.3

September 7
Non-farm Payrolls - August 105k 92
Unemployment Rate 4.6% 4.6
Ave. Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.3
Ave. Work Week 33.8 33.8

Wholesale Inventories 0.5% 0.5
Wholesale Sales 1.0% 0.6

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. More Faculty Opinion Articles