Smith Faculty Opinion Article	July 20, 2007
By Dr. Peter Morici, Professor of International Business E-MAIL WEB SITE

Forecasts for the Weeks of July 23 and July 30 (preliminary)

Fed Policy and Interest Rate Outlook: Fed target unchanged through September.

Ten Treasury rate should rise through the balance of the third quarter. Look for something above 5.10. Treasury long rates are artificially suppressed by the subprime scare.

This may be a good time to move high quality corporate and municipal debt.

Forecast Previous Week of July 23 Period

July 25
Exiting Home Sales - June 5.855m 5.990

July 26
Durable Goods Orders - June 1.0% -2.4
Durable Goods Shipments 1.0 0.5

Help Wanted Index - June 28 27
New Home Sales - June 0.900 0.915

Initial Jobless Claims 312k 301

July 27
GDP Preliminary 2.8% 0.7
GDP Deflator 2.3% 4.2
Core PCE Price 0.1% 0.1
PCE 0.1% 0.5

Help Wanted Index - May 29 27

Mich Cons Sentiment - July(r) 92.0 92.4

Week of July 30

July 31
Employment Cost Index - Q2 0.8% 0.8

Personal Income - June 0.6% 0.4
Per Con Expenditures 0.4% 0.5
PCE Deflator 0.2% 0.5
Core PCE Deflator 0.2% 0.1
Real Per Consumption 0.2% 0.1

Chicago PMI - July 58 60.2
Construction Spending - June 0.5% 0.9
Consumer Confidence - July 103.5 103.9

August 1
ISM Index - July 55 56.0
Pending Home Sales - June 98.5 97.7

Auto Sales (SAAR) - July 16.20m 15.6
Car Sales 7.65m 7.63
Truck Sales 8.55m 7.97

August 2
Factory Orders - June 1.0% -0.5

Durable Goods Orders 1.0% -2.4
Nondurable Goods Orders 1.0% 1.6

August 3
Non-farm Payrolls - July 130k 132
Unemployment Rate - July 4.5% 4.5
Ave. Hourly Earnings - July 0.3% 0.3
Ave. Work Week - July 33.8 33.9

ISM Services 60.0 60.7

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. ►More Faculty Opinion Articles