Smith Faculty Opinion Article

June 29, 2007

By Dr. Peter Morici, Professor of International Business
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Peter Morici

Forecasts for the Weeks of July 2 and July 9, 2007 (preliminary)

Forecast Previous
Period
Week of July 2

July 2
ISM Index - Jun 58.0 59.7

July 3
Factory Orders - May -1.2% 0.3
Durable Goods Orders-May(r) -2.8% 0.8
Nondurable Goods Orders 0.5% -0.2
Pending Home Sales - May 103.0 101.4

Auto Sales (SAAR) 16.06m 16.16
Car Sales - June 7.91m 7.96 Domestic 5.46m 5.49
Truck Sales - June 8.15m 8.20 Domestic 6.79m 6.82

July 5
ADP Employment 80k 97

ISM Services Index - June 58.0 59.7

Initial Jobless Claims 315k 313

July 6
Non-farm Payrolls - May 120k 157k
Unemployment Rate - May 4.5% 4.5
Ave. Hourly Earnings - May 0.3% 0.3
Ave. Work Week - May 33.8 33.9

Week of July 9

July 9
Consumer Credit - May $6.0b 2.6

July 10
Wholesale Inventories - May 0.4% 0.3

July 12
International Trade Bal - May -$62.2b -58.5

July 13
Retail Sales - June 0.4% 1.4
Retail Sales, ex autos - June 0.6% 1.3

Business Inventories - June 0.2% 0.4
Mich Cons Sentiment - July(p) 84.0 85.3

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.

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