Smith Faculty Opinion Article

May 7, 2007

By Dr. Peter Morici, Professor of International Business
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Peter Morici

Forecasts for the weeks of May 7 and 14

Week of May 7

May 7
Consumer Credit - Mar $5.5b 3.0

May 8
Wholesale Inventories - Mar 0.3% 0.5

May 10
Import Prices 0.9% 1.7
Export Prices 0.4% 0.7
Internatonal Trade - Mar -$61.5b -58.4

Federal Budget - April $127.50 $118.8

Initial Jobless Claims 322k 305
Continuing Claims 2.50m 2.59

May 11
Producer Prices - Apr 0.6% 1.0
Core PPI - Apr 0.2% 0.0

Retail Sales - Apr 0.5% 0.7
Retail Sales, Ex Autos -Apr 0.6% 0.8

Business Inventories - Mar 0.4% 0.3

Week of May 14

May 15
Consumer Prices - Apr 0.6% 0.1
Core CPI - Apr 0.2% 0.6

Real Earnings - Apr -0.7% 0.1

May 15
Net Capital Inflows - Mar $74.3b 58.1
For. Treasury Purchases - Mar $21.7 17.0 NAHB Index - Apr 36 33

May 16
Housing Starts - Apr 1.500m 1.518
Building Permits - Apr 1.550m 1.544

Industrial Output - Apr 0.4% -0.2
Capacity Utilization - Apr 81.7% 81.4

May 17
Initial Jobless Claims ___k ___
Continuing Claims 2.__m 2.__

May 18
Mich Cons Sentiment - May(p) 87.9 87.1
Mich Cur Conditions - May(p) 105.0 104.6 Mich Expectations-May(p) 75.9 77.0

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.