Smith Faculty Opinion Article	May 25, 2007
By Dr. Peter Morici, Professor of International Business E-MAIL WEB SITE

Forecasts for the Weeks of May 28 and June 4

Week of May 28
Forecast Previous Period

May 29
Consumer Confidence - Apr 103.5.0 104.0

May 30
ADP Employment 96k 64
FMOC Minutes

May 31
GDP Preliminary - Q1(p) 1.4% 1.3
GDP Deflator - Q1(p) 4.0% 4.0
Final Sales - Q1(p) 1.6% 1.6
Core PCE - Q1(p) 2.2% 2.2
PCE - Q1(p) 3.6% 3.8

Chicago PMI - May 53.3 52.9
Construction Spending - Apri 0.3% 0.2
Help Wanted Index - Apr 30 30

Initial Jobless Claims 305k 311

June 1
Non-farm Payrolls - May 115k 88k
Unemployment Rate - May 4.5% 4.5
Ave. Hourly Earnings - May 0.3% 0.2
Ave. Work Week - May 33.8 33.8

Personal Income - Apr 0.4% 0.7
Per Con Expenditures - Apr 0.4% 0.3
PCE Deflator - Apr 0.4 0.4
Core PCE Deflator- Apr 0.1% 0.0
Real Per Consumption - Apr 0.1% -0.2

ISM Index - May 54.7 54.7

Mich Cons Sentiment - May(r) 88.0 88.7
Mich Cur Conditions - May(r) 104.0 103.8 Mich Expectations-May(r) 78.0 79.0

Pending Home Sales 105.0 104.3

Auto Sales (SAAR) 16.48m 16.27
Car Sales - May 7.39m 7.30
Truck Sales - May 9.09m 8.96

Week of June 4

June 4
Factory Orders - Apr 0.8% 3.1

June 5
ISM Services - May 56.5 56.0

June 6
Productivity - Q1 (r) 1.7% 1.7

June 7
Wholesale Inventories - Apr 0.4% 0.3
Consumer Credit - Apr $5.0b 13.5

June 8
International Trade Bal - Apr $65.8b -63.9

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.