Smith Faculty Opinion Article	April 13, 2007
By Dr. Peter Morici, Professor of International Business E-MAIL WEB SITE

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Week of April 16 Forecast Prior

April 16

Retail Sales - Mar 0.3% 0.1

Retail Ex Autos - Mar 0.5% -0.1

Business Inventories - Feb 0.3% 0.2

Net Capital Inflows - Feb $75B 74.6

NAB Index 35 36

April 17

Housing Starts - Mar 1.450m 1.525

Building Permits - Mar 1.500m 1.532

CPI - Mar 0.7% 0.4%

Core CPI - Mar 0.2% 0.2%

Real Earnings - Mar -0.3% -0.3%

Industrial Output - Mar 0.3% 1.0

Capcity Utlization - Mar 82.2 82.0

Week of April 23

Consumer Confidence - Apr 106.7 107.2

Existing Home Sales - Mar 6.60 6.69

Durable Goods Orders - Mar 1.0% 1.7

Durables Ex Transportation 0.4% -1.0

New Home Sales - Mar 1.00m 0.848

Help Wanted Index - Mar 32 31

Employment Cost Index - Q1 0.8% 0.8

GDP Advance - Q1 2.3% 2.3

GDP Deflator - Q1 2.3% 1.6

Core PCE 2.1% 2.0

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.