Smith Faculty Opinion Article

March 30, 2007

By Dr. Peter Morici, Professor of International Business
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Peter Morici

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Week of April 2 Forecast Prior

April 2

ISM - Manufacturing - Mar 52.0 52.3

April 3

Pending Homes Sales - Feb 107 108.7
Domestic Car Sales - Mar 5.15m 5.07
Domestic Truck Sales - Mar 7.50m 7.68

April 4

Factory Orders - Feb 1.8% -5.6
ISM - Nonmanufacturing - Mar 55.0 54.3

April 5

Non-Farm Payroll - Mar 110k 97
Unemployment - Mar 4.5% 4.5
Average Hourly Earnings - Mar 0.3% 0.4
Average Work Week - Mar 33.8h 33.7
Wholesale Inventories - Feb 0.3% 0.7
Consumer Credit - Feb $6.00b $6.44

Week of April 9

Federal Budget -85.0b -85.5
International Trade -$60.8 -59.1
PPI 1.4 1.3
Core PPI 0.2 0.4

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.