Smith Faculty Opinion Article

March 26, 2007

By Dr. Peter Morici, Professor of International Business
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Peter Morici

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Week of March 26 Forecast Prior
March 26
New Home Sales - Feb 1.050m 0.937
March 27
Consumer Confidence 109.0 112.5
March 28
Durable Goods Orders - Feb 2.5% -8.7
March 29
Real GDP - 2006:4 2.2% 2.2
Implicit Deflator - 2006:4 1.7% 1.6
Initial Jobless Claims - Mar 23 320k 316K
Help Wanted Index - Feb 31 32
March 30
Personal Income - Feb 0.4% 1.0
Personal Spending - Feb 0.3% 0.5
Core PCE - Feb 0.2% 0.3
Construction Spending - Feb -1.0% -0.8
Week of April 2
ISM - Manufacturing - Mar 53.0 52.3
Pending Homes Sales - Feb 106 108.7
Domestic Car Sales - Mar 5.15m 5.07
Domestic Truck Sales - Mar 7.50m 7.68
Factory Orders - Feb 1.2% -5.6
ISM - Nonmanufacturing - Mar 55.0 54.3
Non-Farm Payroll - Mar 110k 97
Unemployment - Mar 4.5% 4.5
Average Hourly Earnings - Mar 0.4% 0.4
Average Work Week - Mar 33.8h 33.7
Wholesale Investment - Feb 0.3% 0.7
Consumer Credit - Feb $6.50b $6.44

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.