Smith Faculty Opinion Article	February 27, 2007
By Dr. Peter Morici, Professor of International Business E-MAIL WEB SITE

Durable Goods Orders Fall in January

The Commerce Department reported today that new durable goods orders in January decreased 7.8 percent. New orders less transportation equipment and less defense fell 3.1 and 7.8 percent, respectively. Be cautious about reading too much into this seemingly sharp drop, because new orders were up the last two months and monthly data exhibit a great deal of unexplainable fluctuations.

More importantly, unfilled orders for durable goods were up 0.1 percent. Less transportation and less defense these were up 0.6 and 0.2 percent, respectively.

Manufacturing is slowing and GDP growth is slowing but not tanking.

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.