Smith Faculty Opinion Article	November 29, 2007
By Dr. Peter Morici, Professor of International Business E-MAIL WEB SITE

Forecasts

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast Previous Period

November 30
Personal Income - Oct 0.4 0.4
Personal Spending 0.3 0.3
PCE Index 0.3 0.2
Core PCE Index 0.2 0.2
Real Personal Spending 0.2 0.1

Construction Spending - Oct 0.0% 0.3

Chicago PMI 50.5 49.7

Week of December 3

December 3
ISM - Nov 50.7 50.9
ISM - Prices 66.0 63.0

Auto Sales* - Nov 16.15m 16.05
Car Sales 7.54 7.47 Domestic 5.01 5.01 Foreign 5.08 2.46
Truck Sales 8.61 8.58 Domestic 7.07 7.07 1.54 1.52
*SAAR as published by Motor Intelligence

December 5
Productivity - Q3(r) 5.2% 4.9
Unit Labor Cost -0.5 -0.2

Factory Orders - Oct -0.2% 0.2
Durable Goods Orders -0.4 -1.7
Nondurable Goods Orders 0.0 1.1

ISM Services - Nov 54.5 55.8
ISM Prices 66.0 63.5

Pending Home Sales - Oct 83.0 85.7

ADP Employment 55 106

December 7
Nonfarm Payrolls - Nov 88k 188
Manufacturing Payrolls -13k -21
Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.7
Average Work Week 33.8hrs 33.8
Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.2

Mich Cons Sentiment - Dec (p) 73.5 76.1

Consumer Credit - Oct $4.3 b 3.7

Week of December 10 (Preliminary)

December 10
Pending Home Sales - Oct 85.7 85.7

December 11

Wholesale Inventories - Oct 0.6% 0.8
Wholesale Sales 0.7% 1.3

Federal Funds Target 4.25 4.50

December 12
Export Prices - Nov 0.3 % 0.9
Import Prices, ex petroleum 0.2 0.5

Trade Balance - Oct -$57.436b -55.6
Treasury Budget - Nov -$60.0b -55.6

December 13
PPI - Nov 1.8% 0.1
PPI - Core 0.1 0.0

Retail Sales - Nov 0.4% 0.2
Retail Sales, ex Autos 0.5 0.2

Business Inventories - Oct 0.4 0.4

December 14
CPI - Nov 0.7% 0.3
CPI - Core 0.2 0.2

Real Earnings - Oct -0.3% -0.2

Industrial Production - Nov 0.0 -0.5
Capacity Utilization 81.7 81.7

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.