Smith Faculty Opinion Article	November 15, 2007
By Dr. Peter Morici, Professor of International Business E-MAIL WEB SITE

Forecasts

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast Previous Period

November 16
Net Foreign Purchases - Sept $80.0b -69.3 (line 19 US Treasury TIC Report)

Industrial Production - Oct 0.1% 0.1
Capacity Utilization 82.1 82.1

Week of November 19

November 19
Leading Indicators - Oct -0.3% 0.3
NABE Index 17 18

November 20
Housing Starts - Oct 1.173m 1.191
Building Permits 1.183 1.226

November 21
Mich Cons Sentiment - Nov (r) 76.0 75.0
Initial Jobless Claims 322k 319

Week of November 26 (preliminary)

November 27
Consumer Confidence - Nov 90 95.6
Existing Home Sales - Oct 4.90 5.250

November 28
Feds Beige Book
Durable Goods - Oct 0.5 -1.7

November 29
ADP Employment - Nov 60 106

GDP - Q3 (p) 4.1 3.9
GDP Deflator 0.8 0.8
PCE 3.0 3.0
PCE Deflator 1.7 1.7
Core Deflator 1.8 1.8

New Home Sales - Oct 0.755m 0.770

Help Wanted Index - Oct 24 24

November 30
Personal Income - Oct 0.4 0.4
Personal Spending 0.3 0.3
PCE Index 0.3 0.2
Core PCE Index 0.2 0.2
Real Personal Spending 0.2 0.1

Construction Spending Oct 0.2% 0.3
Chicago PMI 50.5 49.7

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.