Smith Experts Comment on Election 2012
Updated August 20, 2012
From economic policy positions to the inner workings of the campaign, faculty
experts in the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business are available
to discuss issues relevant to the 2012 election cycle.
The Smith School has an in-house facility for live or taped interviews via fiber-optic
line for television or multimedia content.
Hank Boyd: Campaign Strategies
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Hank Boyd
Tyser Teaching Fellow and associate chair of Smith’s marketing department
301-405-2034
hboyd@rhsmith.umd.edu
|
“Negative messaging through sound bites and ads travels far, wide and
quickly. The information sinks to the back of voter minds and is easily recalled
when they enter the voting booth. The Internet and social media can counter such
manipulation by empowering voters to investigate, evaluate and advocate for the
candidates on their own terms. The candidates can capitalize by crafting more
in-depth messaging that hits more planks in the platform. Moreover, campaign
strategy involves building and reinforcing the candidate’s brand — much like
that of a product. President Obama in 2008 branded himself as the ‘anti-war
candidate’ and as an agent for hope and change.
“In 2012, the Obama campaign has had a steeper hill to climb in terms of
branding. After 3.5 years on the job, President Obama is no longer perceived by
voters as a relatively clean slate on which they can foist their aspirations. In
light of a tightening race, President Obama has gone negative which is
undermining his ‘nice guy’ appeal. As for Gov. Romney, he seems to have trouble
finding common ground with Middle American voters given his privileged
background and past business success. Notably, Romney’s camp has tried to invoke
national touchstones of entrepreneurial drive and rugged individualism.
“Concerning President Obama’s signature achievement — healthcare reform —
Gov. Romney has found it difficult to attack the President given his
well-documented history of instituting such a ‘social’ program in Massachusetts.
At the end of the day, Romney can’t get off the hook by simply claiming
healthcare coverage should be a states’ rights issue.”
Bill Rand: Social Media's Role
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Bill Rand
Assistant professor of marketing and Center for Complexity in Business director
301-405-7229
wrand@rhsmith.umd.edu
|
“If the 2008 national elections witnessed the birth of social media as an
integral part of the democratic process, then 2012 marks social media's coming
of age. Twitter, Facebook and YouTube are more popular than ever as the number
of daily users has grown year over year. New platforms, such as Pinterest, a
picture-based platform, and Medium, from the founders of Blogger and Twitter,
are coming in to their own. Moreover, the power of smartphones has gone up,
while their price has come down. This is encouraging even more citizens to
partake in a truly active democratic process where they can, during every moment
of their lives, consume social media about their (and others’) candidates and
contribute their own thoughts and beliefs to this important national dialogue.
“It used to be to become well known as a political commentator you had to get
your own TV show, radio show or newspaper column, which required an expensive
infrastructure and a large time commitment. But social media is the ultimate
democratic — and potentially meritocratic — tool because it allows anyone with
computer access to broadcast their thoughts and opinions to millions. As a
result, we increasingly see candidates engaging not just with traditional forms
of media broadcast, but also on social media.”
Yogesh Joshi: Attack Ads
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Yogesh Joshi
Assistant professor of marketing
Co-authored “A Theory of Combative Advertising” (2009), Marketing Science
301-405-9668
yjoshi@rhsmith.umd.edu
|
“Attack ads – the use of misleading and inaccurate political appeals – are a
typical example of an attempt by candidates of tailoring messages towards
specific voter segments. The effectiveness of these messages varies from group
to group, often driven by how engaged the group is with the election process.
For instance, in the 2008 presidential election, a notably engaged group was
young voters, a group historically notorious for their disinterest in election
matters.”
Joyce E.A. Russell: Measuring Leadership Style
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Joyce E.A. Russell
Vice dean
Licensed industrial and organizational psychologist
25-plus years of private/public sector consulting
301-405-8146
jrussell@rhsmith.umd.edu
|
“A candidate's leadership style signals credibility. Pundits are quick to
define the candidates in this context and have suggested such perceivable flaws
as Mitt Romney’s 'poor connection and lack of empathy' and President Obama’s
propensity to ‘avoid conflict’ and to ‘compromise with adversaries.’ Attack ads
effectively target the perception of credibility and air frequently and
increasingly up to Election Day. But discerning, uncommitted voters who peel
away partisan rhetoric and blanket generalizing, study the candidate's history.
Does the track record indicate integrity and trustworthiness? To what extent has
the candidate delivered on pledges and promises? To what degree has the
candidate exhibited emotional intelligence or social skills in negotiating and
showing empathy for people?
“Another key leadership trait lies in decision-making experience--indicative
of how tough choices will be made while the nation's and world's interests are
at stake. While voters can scrutinize President Obama's first term, Mitt Romney,
as challenger, can't be expected to be prepared for ‘everything.' But he should
at least be self-aware of what he knows and doesn't know, and demonstrate
intellectual curiosity to build his wherewithal and surround himself with
experts and advisers who can provide effective counsel.”
David Kass: Forecasting the Outcome
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David Kass
Tyser Teaching Fellow in finance
Harvard Business School classmate of Mitt Romney (corporate financial management
course, fall ’73)
301-405-9683
dkass@rhsmith.umd.edu
|
"The 2012 Presidential election may be determined largely by the debate over
the future of Medicare, and how the economy and stock market perform between now
and Election Day. A relatively stable or rising stock market, an improving gross
domestic product, and a declining unemployment rate, should help President
Barack Obama. However, a weak stock market, slowing economy and a rising
unemployment rate should assist Gov. Mitt Romney. Economic events in Europe,
China and the Middle East may also have a significant impact. A good forecasting
tool is provided by Intrade, the online futures market. This indicator has had a
very high degree of accuracy in predicting both national and statewide winners
in recent years based on its reading the evening before an election. Recently,
this highly volatile measure indicated President Obama’s probability of being
re-elected is approximately 57 percent, with Gov. Romney at 43 percent. The
candidate whose probability of winning exceeds 50 percent on the eve of the
election has won in the overwhelming majority of statewide and national
elections in recent years. The winner will likely work with a Republican
controlled House and a 50-percent chance of a Republican controlled Senate,
according to Intrade. The outcome of the House and Senate elections will greatly
influence the extent to which the President will be able to pursue his policy
initiatives.”
Bill Longbrake: ‘Capitalism’ as a Dominant Theme
“A primary theme often drives presidential election debate. In 2008, it was
race relations. In 2012, capitalism – how it should be modified or constrained –
is that dominant theme. Mitt Romney has focused on President Obama’s abysmal
economic record but seems befuddled as to how to respond to Obama’s campaign
theme which centers on ‘How ruthless do Americans want capitalism to be?’ Romney
has stated his belief in a clear and unapologetic defense of the American ideals
of economic freedom, and Paul Ryan’s addition to the Republic ticket changes the
tenor of the campaign to a more pointed debate about the role of government and
future fiscal management, especially around spending policies with Medicare
prominent in campaign discussions.”
Mike Faulkender: Corporate Tax Reform and Job Growth
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Mike Faulkender
Associate professor of finance
Co-authored “Investment and Capital Constraints: Repatriations Under the American
Jobs Creation Act” in Review of Financial Studies (forthcoming)
301-405-1064
mfaulken@rhsmith.umd.edu
|
“According to data published earlier this year, 70 U.S. companies hold $1.2 trillion
in untaxed (by the United States) profits around the world, an 18-percent increase
from a year earlier. Those firms and others unsuccessfully lobbied Congress in 2011
for a tax repatriation holiday — similar to the one enacted seven years ago within
the 2004 American Jobs Creation Act.
“Though legislative debate on a tax holiday has stalled, the candidates differ
on how to deal with a 35 percent U.S. corporate tax rate — highest among industrialized
nations and an obstacle to increasing American jobs and production on U.S. soil.
The Romney campaign has suggested a 25 percent tax rate, plus a territorial tax
system that would eliminate the repatriation tax on U.S. company earnings already
taxed by foreign governments. The Obama Administration has proposed a 28 percent
rate and a global minimum tax system based on immediately taxing revenue in the
foreign subsidiary on top of the host government tax. Both ideas fall short. A territorial
tax would produce no incentive for reinvesting domestically. A global minimum tax
could incentivize large firms to entirely pull out of the United States. Instead
of overhauling the system, simply flipping the income tax ratio to 15 (corporate)
and 35 (individual), for example, would offset potential lost revenue by creating
incentives for long-term domestic investment. It would also bolster a sparse tax
base. Meanwhile, individuals would be less likely to move abroad. But such a position
is politically risky as it’s much easier to target and demonize an Exxon Mobil instead
of its individual shareholders.”
Additional Expert: Cliff Rossi on the Financial Policy Debate
With insight from 25 years in senior risk management and credit positions at
Citigroup, Washington Mutual, Countrywide, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, Rossi can
break down financial policy rhetoric encompassing market regulation and related
issues involving the banking, real estate and small business sectors. A Smith executive-in-residence
and Tyser Teaching Fellow, he writes the weekly
Risk Doctor column for American Banker and is a frequent source/contributor
on outlets ranging from Bloomberg and
CSPAN to
CNN
and Canada’s Business News Network. Contact him
at crossi@rhsmith.umd.edu or 301-908-2536.
About the Robert H. Smith School of Business
The Robert H. Smith School of Business is an internationally recognized leader
in management education and research. One of 12 colleges and schools at the University
of Maryland, College Park, the Smith School offers undergraduate, full-time and
part-time MBA, executive MBA, MS in business, PhD and executive education programs,
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