Emerging Markets
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CFP Director Lemma Senbet (third from left), spoke at the World Bank
on an Economics of Africa Panel on March 5, 2012. He is pictured here
with (right to left) World Bank Senior Vice President and Chief
Economist Justin Lin; World Bank Chief Economist-Africa Region
Shantayanan Devarajan; Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution John Page;
Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development Alan Gelb; and Cornell
University Professor Ravi Kanbur.
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Firms in developing countries face challenges posed by underdeveloped financial
systems and markets, regulatory systems that are still works in progress, and legal
environments that are not always efficient at protecting property rights and resolving
commercial disputes. The Emerging Markets Research Track will provide a forum for
the discussion on cutting edge research on ways to reform financial institutions,
government policies and management strategies in developing countries so that they
facilitate the growth and increases in productivity of businesses. We will partner
with practitioners and policy makers to create a market for ideas how to improve
both regulatory frameworks and business practices.
Policy Briefs
Formal versus Informal Finance: Evidence from China
by Meghana Ayyagari, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Vojislav Maksimovic
Published in the Review of Financial Studies, August 2010
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Read the article from Smith Business magazine
Abstract: The fast growth of Chinese private sector firms
is taken as evidence that informal finance can facilitate firm growth better
than formal banks in developing countries.
more...
We examine firm financing patterns and growth using a database of twenty-four
hundred Chinese firms. While a relatively small percentage of firms utilize
bank loans, bank financing is associated with faster growth whereas informal
financing is not. Controlling for selection, we find that firms with bank
financing grow faster than similar firms without bank financing and that
our results are not driven by bank corruption or the selection of firms
that have accessed the formal financial system. Our findings question whether
reputation and relationship-based financing are responsible for the performance
of the fastest-growing firms in developing countries.
Keynote Addresses
AERC and Diaspora
by Lemma Senbet
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A Keynote address at the 25 anniversary celebration of African Finance
and Economic Association, ASSA Conference, San Diego, January 5, 2013.
Prof. Senbet speaks about the African Financial Development Gap, increasing
diaspora engagement to build on economic performance momentum, and the
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC).
African Finance: Myths and Realities
by Lemma Senbet
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Watch the Video

A keynote address for the “Entrepreneurship in Africa” Conference at Whitman
School of Management, Syracuse University, April 2, 2010.
Prof. Senbet explores the financial development gap faced by African countries
and comments on the challenges to the African financial systems and the opportunities
for financial entrepreneurship.
Working Papers
Improving Access to Banking: Evidence from Kenya
Franklin Allen, Elena Carletti, Robert Cull, Jun “QJ” Qian, Lemma
Senbet, Patricio Valenzuela
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Abstract: Using household surveys and bank penetration
data at the district-level in 2006 and 2009, we explore the impact of Equity
Bank—a leading private commercial bank focusing on microfinance on the
access to banking in Kenya.
more...
Equity Bank pursues distinct branching and business strategies that target
underserved areas and less privileged households, unlike other commercial banks
in Kenya. Equity Bank presence has a positive and significant impact on
households’ use of bank accounts and bank credit, especially for Kenyans with
low income, no salaried job and less education, and those that do not own their
own home. The findings are robust to using the district-level proportion of
people speaking a minority language as an instrument for Equity Bank presence.
We conclude that Equity Bank’s business model— providing financial services to
population segments typically ignored by traditional commercial banks and
generating sustainable profits in the process—can be a solution to the financial
access problem that has hindered the development of inclusive financial sectors
in many African countries.
Resolving the African Financial Development Gap: Cross-Country
Comparisons and a Within-Country Study of Kenya
by Franklin Allen, Elena Carletti, Robert Cull, Jun “QJ” Qian,
Patricio Valenzuela and Lemma Senbet
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Abstract: With extensive country- and firm-level data
sets we first document that the financial sectors of most sub-Saharan
African countries remain significantly underdeveloped by the standards of
other developing countries.
more...
We also find that population density appears to
be considerably more important for banking sector development in Africa than
elsewhere. To better understand how countries can overcome the high costs of
developing viable banking sectors outside large metropolitan areas, we focus
on Kenya, which has made significant strides in financial inclusion and
development in recent years. We find a positive and significant impact of
Equity Bank, a leading private commercial bank on financial access,
especially for under-privileged households. Equity Bank’s business
model—providing financial services to population segments typically ignored
by traditional commercial banks and generating sustainable profits in the
process—can be a potential solution to the financial access problem that has
hindered the development of inclusive financial sectors in many other
African countries.
Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy: A Survey
By Lemma W. Senbet and Tracy Yue Wang
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Abstract: This paper provides a synthetic and evaluative
survey of issues in corporate financial distress and bankruptcy.
more...
This area has moved into a public domain as a result of the recent global financial crisis
that witnessed failures of many venerable institutions that got rescued by the
government. Hence, this survey highlights the resolution mechanisms not only in
the private domain but also in the public domain, and it uses corporate finance
paradigms to interpret some of the far reaching developments in financial
distress of systemic nature. This survey's theoretical anchor is a framework for
the delineation of economic distress and financial distress. The difficulty in
disentangling the dichotomy has been a central challenge in the empirics
relating to financial distress, corporate bankruptcy, and the use of apparently
cost-effective private mechanisms for resolving financial distress. This review
devotes ample space on the discussion of conditions under which privatization of
bankruptcy succeeds and fails, and the recent empirics on the subject. The
review also grapples with the efficiency of bankruptcy codes and regimes, given
the frequent usage of court-supervised mechanisms. The fundamental efficiency
question about the bankruptcy law is whether the law effectively rehabilitates
economically efficient but financially distressed firms and liquidates
economically inefficient firms. This survey provides an ongoing debate in law
and in economic theories about the efficiency of the US bankruptcy code.
Moreover, it examines a linkage between financial distress and corporate
governance, which has received growing attention. The review goes beyond the US
to take a look at comparative bankruptcy codes around the world with a focus on
bankruptcy reform issues in emerging economies. Finally, this survey takes us
into a public domain and systemic financial distress. This is inspired by the
recent global financial crisis. Is the standard bankruptcy procedure (e.g.,
those embedded in Chapters 11 and 7) sufficient for resolving systemic financial
distress? The review attempts to answer this question in the context of the
recently adopted landmark legislation, particularly the Dodd-Frank Act's Title
II (Receivership), which governs the resolution of systemically critical
institutions.
Do Phoenix Miracles Exist? Firm-Level Evidence from Financial Crises
by Meghana Ayyagari, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt and Vojislav Maksimovic
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Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence on firm
recoveries from financial system collapses in developing countries (systemic
sudden stops episodes), and compares them with the experience in the United
States in the 2008 financial crisis.
more...
Prior research found that economies recover from systemic sudden stop episodes
before the financial sector. These recoveries are called Phoenix miracles,
and the research questioned the role of the financial system in recovery.
Although an average of the macro data across a sample of systemic sudden
stop episodes over the 1990s appears consistent with the notion of Phoenix
recoveries, closer inspection reveals heterogeneity of responses across
the countries, with only a few countries fitting the pattern. Micro data
show that across countries, only a small fraction (less than 31 percent)
of firms follow a pattern of recovery in sales without a recovery in external
credit, and even these firms have access to external sources of cash. The
experience of firms in the United States during the 2008 financial crisis
also suggests no evidence of credit-less recoveries. An examination of the
dynamics of firms’ financing, investment and payout policies during recovery
periods shows that far from being constrained, the firms in the sample are
able to access long-term financing, issue equity, and significantly expand
their cash holdings.
Small vs. Young Firms across the World Contribution to Employment,
Job Creation, and Growth
by Meghana Ayyagari, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt and Vojislav Maksimovic
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Abstract: This paper describes a unique cross-country database
that presents consistent and comparable information on the contribution of the
small and medium enterprises sector to total employment, job creation, and growth
in 99 countries. more...
The authors compare and contrast the importance of small and medium enterprises
to that of young firms across different economies. They find that small
firms (in particular, firms with less than 100 employees) and mature firms
(in particular, firms older than 10 years) have the largest shares of total
employment and job creation. Small firms and young firms have higher job
creation rates than large and mature firms. However, large firms and young
firms have higher productivity growth. This suggests that while small firms
employ a large share of workers and create most jobs in developing economies
their contribution to productivity growth is not as high as that of large
firms.